Solidarity Sunday: Tipping Point 2025
Graduation time is again upon us, my youngest son among them. Many of our social media feeds are filled with happy, hopeful posts about the end of high school days and well wishes for bright futures ahead. But how bright are they?
Two years ago, we wrote an article entitled, "We're at a Tipping Point" about changing demographics and educational choices, and we made some predictions on the recruiting landscape in which our local unions find themselves. In May 2025, with a new administration in the White House and new policies abound, we decided to check our work from 2023. Here's an updated overview on these developments:
2023 "We're Becoming More Diverse"
"Nationally, the class of 2036 will have about 300,000 (19 percent) fewer white non-Hispanic public high school graduates than the class of 2023. Thirty-three states are projected to have fewer white public high school graduates in all future years (or only experience single-year marginal increases). White public high school graduates are projected to comprise less than half of all public high school graduates in at least 24 states in the early to mid-2030s."
2025 Update: This is progressing as anticipated. White students remain the largest group among public high school graduates but are projected to decrease to 1.2 million by 2041, making up about 39% of the total graduating class. This decline reflects broader national trends toward increased racial and ethnic diversity in the student population.
2023: "The Number of High School Graduates Will Begin to Shrink"
"The country produced about 3.8 million high school graduates in the class of 2019. The number of high school graduates is projected to peak at 3.9 million with the class of 2025. After 2025, the U.S. should expect successively fewer annual numbers of graduates in virtually every graduating class with the class of 2037 projected to be about the same in number as the class of 2014 (3.5 million)."
2025 Update: The projection holds true; the number of high school graduates is will peak at 3.9 million in 2025. Following this peak, a steady decline is anticipated, with projections indicating a drop to approximately 3.4 million graduates by 2041. We're having fewer kids, and this trend reflects the declining birth rates. This will have a huge effect on workforce demographics in the coming decades.
2023 "Fewer People Are Going to College"
"According to the Pew Research Center, college enrollment in the United States fell by 2.6 million students between 2011 and 2019. Bachelor's degree enrollment dropped by 2.2%. Most majors declined in college enrollment by 5%. English majors down 10.2%. Communications down 8.7%, Physical sciences down 7.6%. Liberal arts and humanities majors down 7.4% just to name a few."
2025 Update: After years of decline, college enrollment has actually shown signs of recovery. In fall 2024, college enrollment increased by 4.5% compared to the previous year, reaching nearly 16 million undergraduates and 3.2 million graduate students. This rebound shows a renewed interest in higher education, potentially influenced by shifting job market demands and the increasing importance of advanced degrees in certain industries. It will be interesting to see how the declining birthrates affect this as well.
2023 "Labor Market Is Still Hot"
"While the overall job market is leveling off in 2023, the number of open jobs is still significantly above its pre-pandemic level. The construction industry still faces a dire labor shortage. The number of construction job openings jumped by 129,000 in February, even as hiring decreased by 18,000, according to a report from the Labor Department released Tuesday."
2025 Update: The construction industry continues to grapple with significant labor shortages. Earlier this year, Engineering News Record estimated 439,000 additional workers to meet demand. Factors remain similar to our 2023 prediction including an aging workforce, declining interest in skilled trades among younger generations, and now more restrictive immigration limiting the influx of foreign labor. Project delays and other factors highlight the understanding that skilled labor isn't cheap, prompting industry leaders to advocate for enhanced training programs and policy reforms to attract and retain workers. This is an opportunity for Labor.
There is opportunity here if we know where to look and what messages to put out. Do you have an organizing plan that reflects this? Are we staying relevant in this changing environment to an increasingly open-minded group of young people? Are we telling our story early enough so that young people know about us and like us before they ever enter the working age? Are we relevant in mediums where they naturally spend lots of time?
Let's come up with a plan for your Local Union.